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微信贝恩最新研究表明，40%受访消费者计划在今年“双十一”购物节增加消费支出，低线城市线上购物者渗透率在2020年第一季度达到54%左右，比2019年上半年高出9%。
即将到来的“双十一”购物节是一年一度的中国消费盛宴，过去5年，每年“双十一”购物节24小时销售额都能取得35%的同比增长，2019年的销售额更是达到了4100亿元，是亚马逊一个月销售额的两倍之多。
然而，新冠疫情影响下，2020年及未来的“双十一”购物节的零售增长预期不再那么明朗。伴随疫情席卷全球，世界上其他国家希望能向中国学习如何从疫情冲击中快速恢复，但是中国市场自身也面临着困境，例如当前国内实体店客流量仅有去年的80%左右。
“双十一”购物节自诞生之日起经历了三个不同的阶段。最初，“双十一”的重点是通过促销活动提高一线和二线城市消费者的线上渗透率，之后“双十一”的战略意图转变为通过推动消费升级，让消费者购买价格更高的产品，实现高端化。去年的“双十一”购物节则揭开了新篇章：两极化。这一阶段中，零售商面临更大的压力，一边押宝低线城市活动渗透率，一边鼓励高线城市消费者增加消费额。
贝恩公司最新报告《新冠疫情对“双十一”影响几何？》针对中国消费者展开了调查，覆盖高线和低线两大城市层级，有40%受访消费者表示，计划增加今年“双十一”的消费支出。此外，中国低线城市正取得显著增长。根据研究，低线城市不仅贡献了大多数日活用户总数（DAU）增长，而且线上购物者占网民总数的百分比（即渗透率）在2020年第一季度达到了54%左右，比2019年上半年高出9%。
贝恩公司全球合伙人大中华区零售业务主席郑硕怀表示：“‘双十一’消费额不仅是零售市场前瞻性指标，也是市场健康度和市场前景的风向标。受疫情影响，零售商在今年上半年的销售额下滑，因此会希望通过“双十一”购物节来弥补损失。今年将会是“双十一”诞生以来最重要的一年，我们观察到，零售商和品牌商不约而同地关注了低线城市的新市场中的渗透率，以及提升现有高线城市消费者的钱包份额，并借助数字化优势让业务实现反弹。”
贝恩研究显示，在今年“双十一”大促中，电子消费品和健康保健类产品将最有可能成为销量赢家。这主要由于人们在家办公、娱乐的时间变多，花费在网上的时间也相应增加。报告显示，有41%的受访消费者计划增加在电子产品方面的支出。此外，早在疫情爆发之前，中国消费者对于健康饮食的关注度已经在逐步提升，疫情加快了这一趋势，有42%的受访消费者表示计划在“双十一”期间购买更多的生鲜食品。
郑硕怀指出，许多现有趋势在疫情期间得到了加速，今年“双十一”的赢家将会是那些聚焦消费者需求进行调整的品牌商和零售商，包括注重发展电商渠道、打造本土品牌和提供价廉物美的产品。他建议，零售商和品牌商应当根据情况管理品牌和产品组合，提高高线城市市场的钱包份额，以及低线城市市场的渗透率。”
目前正处于“双十一”的第三个发展阶段，鉴于高线和低线城市之间的收入差距，来自低线城市的新用户群的消费高端化的进程可能慢于一二线城市的消费者。由于新用户的转化和服务成本不断攀升，市场形势将变得尤为艰难。
对此，贝恩给予线上平台、线下零售商、品牌商不同的行动建议，打好这一场年度关键之战。
| 线上平台
> 挖掘老用户终生价值：例如，通过提供丰富的互动体验、为爆款“明星产品”设计内容等方式，与用户建立起超越交易的更高层次的关系，提升用户忠诚度
> 为新用户量身定制价值主张：在每个细分市场定制产品组合的同时，配备更具成本效益的供应链和市场通路，缓解由于高昂的获客成本和“最后一公里”配送服务所造成的压力
| 线下零售商
> 调整产品组合和供应链，确保合理的线上经济效益：如在精简门店网络、履约和物流系统时，采取外包方式或者与生态合作伙伴展开合作
> 优化实体店体验：回归业务基础、调整自身定位，吸引年轻消费者；此外，聚焦线上渗透率较低的品类，通过精选SKU和有竞争力的定价，打造有别于线上平台的差异化优势
> 加码全渠道能力建设：通过借鉴有效方法，获取并转化线上客流；投资IT、数据和供应链基础设施，为全渠道零售提供支持；在战略生态系统内建立合作伙伴关系，共同投资并维持高速增长
| 品牌商
> 与消费者建立直接的联系：基于内部的交易和互动数据，以及从生态系统获取的数据，形成对用户的360°全方位洞察；通过各种渠道直接与消费者展开互动，同时重塑市场通路能力，以强化跨渠道协同效应
> 积极布局同城零售业务：打通一整条消费者链路，优化成本、提升速度
放眼未来，“双十一”购物节作为中国零售商最重要的24小时的最终价值取决于线上平台、线下零售商和品牌商能否大获成功，重回正轨——不仅仅是11月11日这一天，更是之后整整364天的表现。
New research from Bain & Company finds 40 percent of consumers are planning to spend more in Double 11 this year but winning retailers will need to differentiate strategies for higher-tier and lower-tier cities
The year 2020 will be a crucial one for China's annual shopping festival Double 11 and the entire retail industry. The rest of the world is looking to the country for cues on how to recover from the impact of Covid-19 while China's foot traffic is still 20 percent lower than last year's levels.
Over the past five years, sales in the 24-hour period of Double 11 have grown by 35 percent annually, generating RMB 410 billion (approximately $60 billion) in gross merchandise value (GMV), double what Amazon generates in an entire month. But impacts of Covid-19 suggest an unclear road ahead for retailers' Singles Day sales growth in 2020 and beyond. Despite these challenges, there is optimism as over 40 percent of consumers state that they expect to spend more this year and the country is seeing significant growth from lower-tier cities. These are the conclusions of Bain & Company's latest report Will COVID-19 Change "Singles Day"?
Double 11 has advanced through three distinct stages since inception. After focusing first on driving Tier 1 and Tier 2 consumer online penetration through the sales event, Singles Day pivoted strategic intent to premiumization by trading consumers up to higher-priced goods. Last year marked the start of a new Double 11 chapter, polarization, where retailers experienced mounting competitive pressure and began to double down on lower-tier city event penetration while encouraging consumers in higher-tier cities to spend more.
Bain & Company Partner, Jonathan Cheng said that: Singles Day has been a consistent forward looking indicator of retail trends, as well as a guide to the heath and outlook of the market. The impact of Covid-19 puts greater pressure on the day to make up for retailers' lost sales in the first half of 2020. This year's event is the most important since the first Double 11 as retailers and brands have a dual focus on new penetration from lower-tier cities and increased share of wallet from existing higher-tier consumers. It will also shine a light on how China's digital leadership allowed the market to bounce back so effectively.
For the report, Bain conducted a survey with Chinese consumers to understand their intent going into this year's event. Results show that new user growth from lower-tier markets will remain strong, accounting for the majority of total DAU (Daily Active Users) growth. Additionally, while higher-tier markets start to hit the ceiling on saturation, lower-tier markets continue to grow online shopper penetration as a percentage of total web users, reaching roughly 54 percent in the first quarter of 2020, up from around 45 percent in 1H 2019.
Consumer electronics and Health and wellness products are two of the top categories that consumers have indicated are likely to be winners in this year's Double 11 event. As people shift to working and playing more from home, they are also transitioning to more time online – it was not surprising to see that 41% of those surveyed intend to increase spending on electronics. The pandemic has further accelerated a trend that had steadily been gaining momentum: consumer interest in health and wellness. As evidence, 42 percent of consumers expect to spend more on fresh food on Singles Day.
Jonathan Cheng said, "Covid-19 has accelerated many of the trends that we have been seeing for some time, and the winners in Double 11 this year will be the brands and retailers that have adapted to these changing consumer needs – eCommerce channels, local players, and value rather than premium offerings." "Online retailers and brand owners will need to make their propositions differentiated to be relevant for both lower-tier and higher-tier consumers while offline retail needs to learn lessons from Double 11 and adapt their strategy to attract footfall back in store."
For most retailers and brands, the aim will be to increase share of wallet in higher-tier markets and gain penetration in lower-tier markets, while managing brand and product portfolios accordingly. However, the ultimate long-term value of Double 11 as the most important 24 hours for China's retailers will depend on how successfully online platforms, offline retailers and brands rise to the occasion—this November 11 and in the 364 days that follow.