来自中国和全球领先企业的100余名消费与零售行业高管齐聚一堂，参加在上海举行的贝恩x凯度消费者指数“2023中国购物者报告”闭门会议

贝恩公司今天携手凯度消费者指数联合发布《2023年中国购物者报告，系列一》。报告指出，中国快速消费品市场在经历去年增速放缓之后，今年一季度出现温和复苏迹象，行业整体有望保持复苏态势，今年第一季度的部分趋势也将得到延续。

2022年，中国整个消费市场受疫情冲击较大。尽管快速消费品市场在上半年和第三季度分别实现了2.8%和6.3%的增长，但第四季度整体销售额下跌3.9%。因此， 2022年全年中国快速消费品市场较2021年温和上涨1.5%。和过去几年一样，在我们持续跟踪的26个品类中，整体上，本土品牌主要凭借销量增长从外资品牌手中赢得市场份额，但从平均售价来看，无论是本土还是外资品牌均有所下降。

2023年第一季度，中国经济运行开局良好，展露温和复苏迹象。第一季度GDP同比增长4.5%，除汽车以外的社会消费品零售总额3月同比增长10.5%，表现均好于预期。消费者信心指数也呈现稳步回升态势，不过尚未恢复至疫情前水平。

报告提到，随着疫情防控措施的优化调整，消费者信心不断增强，中国快速消费品市场从2022年第四季度开始反弹，2023年第一季度销售额同比增长1.9%，其中平均售价虽较2022年同期下降了0.8%，但销量小幅攀升2.7%。今年4月，快速消费品市场同比增长5.1%，接近疫情前水平，除汽车以外的社会消费品零售总额增长16.5%。

贝恩公司资深全球合伙人布鲁诺（Bruno Lannes）表示：“虽然第一季度快速消费品市场增幅不大，但按月来看，除1月份受疫情影响，单月企稳回升的态势增强了消费者对未来数月的乐观预期。我们认为，全面复苏尚需时日，一季度多项数据指标回暖态势明显。”

包装食品和家庭护理品类延续增势，个人护理和饮料品类呈现回暖迹象

2023年第一季度，家庭护理品类继续领跑四大消费品领域，销售额同比增长13%，得益于消费者对健康的持续关注，该品类实现量价齐升：销量和平均售价分别增长9.3%和3.2%。伴随消费者卫生意识的持续提高和健康需求的持续扩大，家庭护理领域下所有的关键品类均实现增长。包装食品方面，整体销售额增长3.2%，其中销量虽下滑2%，但平均售价增长5.2%。今年4月数据显示，家庭护理和包装食品的同比增速分别达到了12.2%和3.8%。

2023年第一季度，饮料品类的整体销售额增长1%，虽然销量增长3.4%，但平均售价下降了2.4%。其中，果汁、即饮茶、牛奶和瓶装水继续领跑品类增长。今年4月，饮料品类呈现出更明显的复苏态势，取得了3.3%的增长。
在个人护理领域，第一季度销量增长4.1%，带动销售额降幅收窄至2.6%。今年4月，个人护理品类整体实现5.9%的增长，为未来几个月的品类复苏注入了信心。

品类价格趋势进一步分化

凯度消费者指数大中华区总经理虞坚指出：“2023年第一季度，快速消费品市场延续了2020年出现的价格紧缩趋势，但品类间的分化趋势愈发显著。部分品类通过加码创新，满足消费者日益增长的健康和卫生需求，成功推动平均价格继续上涨。例如，得益于加工工艺和口味创新，高端果汁细分市场实现量价齐飞——销量猛增25%，平均售价增长7%。”
有些品类的消费者转而选择价格更低的产品和线上渠道，导致品类的平均售价进一步下跌。以牙刷为例，在各价位段中，大众化价位的产品以4%的销量增长居首，品类平均售价则下跌了9%。

电商渠道增速回升，仓储会员店增势迅猛，O2O渠道保持增长

2023年第一季度，随着疫情态势趋稳、物流逐步恢复，消费者加速向线上转移，电商销售额同比增长9%，且持续追踪的26个品类的电商渗透率同比皆有所提升。另一方面，线下仓储会员店高歌猛进，购买人数和频次双双提升，实现了38%的强劲增长。

O2O渠道也延续了此前的增长势头，2023年第一季度，O2O渠道的销售额同比劲增16%。与传统电商渠道相比，O2O在品类渗透率方面特点显著：冷冻食品、面巾纸、卫生纸等存在即时需求的刚需品类领跑O2O渠道渗透率增长，O2O模式提供的便利性和快速配送深受消费者欢迎。

贝恩公司全球合伙人、大中华区消费品业务主席邓旻认为，中国消费市场正在逐步回暖，在提振消费的大背景下，未来将不断释放经济增长的内需潜力。中国快速消费品市场继续展现出强劲韧性，消费者、品牌商和零售商也在积极调整以适应多变的市场环境。我们认为，行业整体有望保持复苏态势，今年第一季度的部分趋势也将得到延续。

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报告下载 (bain.cn)

After a slow 2022, China’s fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is showing signs of recovery and building the momentum for a positive rest of 2023, according to a report released today by Bain & Company and Kantar Worldpanel.

In 2022, Chinese consumption was hamstringed by two major waves of Covid-related restrictions. Despite year-on-year value growth of 2.8% in the first half of the year and reaching 6.3% in the fall, an infection spike at the end of 2022 caused value to decline to 3.9% in the fourth quarter. As a result, the FMCG market landed at a modest annual growth rate of 1.5% for the full year. Like previous years, local brands gained share from foreign brands, mainly through volume gains, while average selling price (ASP) decreased for both local and foreign brands.

The first quarter of 2023 revealed promising signs of a moderate economic rebound. China’s GDP grew 4.5% in Q1 2023 compared to Q1 2022, while overall retail sales (excluding auto) grew 10.5% in March year-on-year, both exceeding expectations. The market’s Consumer Confidence Index showed a steady upward trend but has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.

The 12^th edition of China Shopper Report 2023, Vol. 1 reported that consumers are gradually gaining confidence now that Covid restrictions have lifted. Overall, the FMCG industry rebounded from the fourth quarter of 2022 and reported value growth of 1.9% in Q1 2023 vs. Q1 2022, driven by mild volume growth of 2.7%, despite a decline in ASP of 0.8%.

“Although the first quarter’s value growth rate might appear modest, the story is very different on a month-by-month basis. While January consumption was severely affected by a Covid outbreak, the FMCG sector started its growth trajectory in the months after. Full recovery will take time, and we think the first quarter numbers are tracking well,” said Bruno Lannes, a partner at Bain & Company based in Shanghai.

In April, the year-on-year FMCG growth rate reached 5.1%, in line with pre-pandemic levels. Overall retail sales, excluding auto, also saw impressive growth at 16.5%.

Packaged food and home care continued to grow; personal care and beverage showed signs of recovery

Across all four major FMCG sectors, home care continued to lead value growth at 13% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023 due to sustained health awareness and increases in both volume (9.5%) and ASP (3.2%). Nearly all key categories grew due to sustained and heightened attention to hygiene and health needs. Packaged food continued to grow at 3.2%, mainly driven by an ASP increase (5.2%), although volume dropped 2%. April data showed that home care and packaged food continued value growth of 12.2% and 3.8% compared to April 2022, respectively.

Beverage value grew 1% in the first quarter of 2023, driven by volume growth of 3.4%, while ASP declined 2.4%. Juice, ready-to-drink tea, milk, and packaged water continued to lead the sector’s growth. In April, the sector experienced further growth of 3.3%, revealing its rebound potential.

In personal care, the trend of declining value slowed in the first quarter of 2023 (2.6%), with an

increase in volume (4.1%). In April, the sector achieved a value growth of 5.9%, providing confidence for the coming months.

Deflationary pricing trend across categories further diverged

“The price deflationary trend which started in 2020 persisted in the first quarter of 2023 but became more divergent across categories. Some categories have continued to increase their ASPs through strong innovations and by addressing consumers’ rising health and hygiene needs. For example, the premium juice segment achieved 25% volume growth, and ASP increased 7% year-on-year, a result of new processing methods and new flavors,” said Jason Yu, Managing Director of Kantar Worldpanel in Greater China.

Others have sustained ASP declines as consumers chose lower-priced products and shifted to online for more competitive pricing. The toothbrush category is representative of this. Across all price tiers, the mass segment for toothbrushes had the highest volume growth at 4%, with a 9% ASP decrease.

E-commerce reaccelerated, club warehouses soared, and O2O sustained growth

In the first quarter of 2023, consumers accelerated their shift toward online channels, reaching a sales value growth rate of 9% compared to the first quarter last year, due to Covid infections subsiding and resumption of logistics supply chain.

Club warehouses showed a significant value increase of 38% year-on-year in Q1 2023, with growth attributed to a growing number of buyers and increased shopping frequency.

The club warehouse differs from a traditional hypermarket in three ways: membership fees drive profit more than product margins, items sold are mainly imported or self-labeled, and products are primarily sold in bulk with lower unit prices vs. single packs.

One continuing trend is the sustained growth of online-to-offline (O2O) channels, which saw 16% value growth in Q1 2023 vs. Q1 2022. From a category penetration perspective, O2O has distinct patterns compared with online penetration. Necessity categories with urgent needs, such as frozen food, facial tissue, and toilet paper, led O2O penetration growth. Consumers are responding favorably to the convenience and speed offered by O2O solutions.

“Chinese consumption is recovering, and the government has already implemented stimulus policies to boost consumption, with more expected. The FMCG industry continues to demonstrate resilience, and consumers, brands, and retailers adapt to ever-changing circumstances. The industry’s recovery is likely to take shape over the coming months, repeating a few trends from the first quarter of the year,” ,” said Derek Deng, a partner at Bain & Company based in Shanghai.