今天，贝恩公司连续第四年发布针对目前世界上规模最大的消费购物节“双十一”的研究报告《2023年“双十一”：理性和感性双管齐下，赢得消费者青睐》。本次报告面向来自中国不同城市的3,000名消费者展开调研，结果表明，与2022年相比，超过四分之三（77%）的消费者计划在今年“双十一”减少消费支出或维持和去年一样的水平。

贝恩公司全球合伙人杨大坤表示：“在去年的调研中，消费者展现出同样的谨慎态度，选择减少或维持支出的消费者比例达到了76%。在2023年，‘双十一’迎来了第15个年头。我们发现，结构性放缓的问题依然存在：通过进一步深挖‘双十一’之外的全年整体消费意愿，有71%的受访者表示自己计划在2023年全年减少消费支出或者保持和去年一样的水平。”

消费更谨慎，追求“商品价值感”成为主流趋势

报告指出，两大原因促使消费者趋于谨慎。一方面，面对宏观经济的不确定性，越来越多的消费者开始追求“商品价值感”。另一方面，自2009年以来，随着“双十一”的规模日益扩大和逐步成熟，在其发展过程中，不断涌现的同类电商大促，让消费者产生了“折扣疲劳”。

具体看，有超过三分之一的消费者（35%）表示自己在等待更大的优惠力度，从而让钱“花得更值”，还有18%的消费者表示自己会进行大批量采购。不过，更多的消费者（48%）则表示，他们会转而购买更平价的品牌或零售商自有品牌产品。

就消费者购买的产品而言，“追求商品价值感”的趋势导致了品类的两极分化。具体表现为消费者集中于购买纸巾、洗手液、方便速食和宠物食品等生活必需品，减少了家电和家具等单价较高的非必需品的消费。同时，消费者还在外出就餐和旅游等领域寻求一些“小确幸”式的消费。

通过对比不同城市和年龄层人群的消费习惯，研究发现，低线城市、中低收入人群最容易感受到压力，尤其是“婴儿潮一代”、“Z世代”和“X世代”人群。[1]此外，即使是居住在大城市、收入相对更高的“Z世代”消费者，因为较高的生活成本以及缺乏足够的资产累积，也表现出对性价比的强烈重视。

无独有偶，贝恩公司在2023年年中针对东南亚地区9,000名消费者展开的调研中呈现出类似的趋势。在该调研中，约72%的消费者（主要来自中低收入的年轻家庭）表示，他们将在2023年全年减少消费支出或保持和去年一样的水平。同样，他们通过等待促销、转而购买更平价的品牌、大批量采购等方式来节省开支。但是，在东南亚地区，选择等待促销的消费者占比（23%）要高于转向更平价品牌的消费者（17%）。此外，东南亚的消费品类之间同样呈现两极化的趋势，但不同品类存在一定的地区性差异。例如，旅游度假是东南亚地区消费下跌最严重的品类之一；相比之下，中国的消费者依然热衷于通过旅游追寻幸福、乐享生活。

玩转直播/短视频购物，提升消费的“体验趣味性”

根据本次报告，中国的消费者愿意关注更多新兴平台，尤其是直播/短视频电商平台来提升消费的“体验趣味性”。这些平台打破了娱乐和零售之间的界限，为消费者带来全新的体验。

直播/短视频电商在去年“双十一”就已经呈现出非常明显的崛起之势——相比2021年，2022年“双十一”直播/短视频电商的商品交易总额（GMV）增长了一倍有余。今年“双十一”，我们观察到，零售商们已经严阵以待，准备采用更多的方式进一步玩转互动式购物模式。

在其他市场，直播/短视频电商同样势如破竹。尤其是东南亚地区，该地区一直被视作中国以外最具发展潜力的市场。比如，头部玩家TikTok Shop在东南亚地区实现了指数级增长。新加坡研究机构Momentum Works今年8月发布的报告中估计，2023年TikTok Shop在东南亚电商市场的份额将从2022年的4.4%跃升至13.2%。然而，印尼近期针对TikTok Shop颁布的禁令以及越南等国的监管审核或将对直播/短视频电商在东南亚地区的未来发展造成一定冲击。

值得一提的是，在中国，直播/短视频电商渗透率的快速增长并没有带动客单价的增长，直播/短视频电商平台的客单价明显落后于传统电商平台。消费者对直播/短视频电商平台服务的担忧是造成差距的主要因素。例如，少数消费者表示在今年“双十一”会减少在主流直播/短视频电商平台上的消费支出，主要原因包括配送慢、APP设计糟糕以及退货政策无法令人满意。

贝恩公司全球副合伙人唐克家 (Kyle Tang)表示：“想要在中国市场获得成功，零售商需要在提供‘商品价值感’的同时为消费者带来‘更互动式、娱乐化的购物体验’，进而激发他们的消费冲动。每个零售商可以在两者间选择适合自己的方向，例如，可通过更丰富的自有品牌商品以提供极致性价比，或通过新兴媒体渠道增强与消费者互动。未来，相信杰出的零售商需要在两方面都取得出色的表现。”

[1] Z世代通常指年龄为18-26岁的人群，千禧一代为27-44岁，X世代为45-64岁，婴儿潮一代为65岁及以上

More than three-quarters or 77% of consumers are planning to spend less or maintain spending on Singles Day this year, according to Bain & Company's fourth edition of the Singles Day report which includes an annual survey of 3,000 consumers across a wide range of Chinese cities.

The muted outlook is unsurprising as macroeconomic headwinds are causing consumers to be more value-conscious, but also worth noting is the sheer size and gradual maturing of the shopping festival which first launched in 2009. Singles Day has progressively been emulated by rival events in an increasingly crowded retail calendar.

"Interestingly, this level of caution is comparable to consumer sentiment last year where 76% of shoppers surveyed mentioned reducing or maintaining their Singles Day spend. There seems to be an element of structural slowdown about the event linked to its longevity and scale. This year's survey dug deeper into general spending intentions beyond Singles Day, and 71% of respondents told us they would cut or maintain retail spending through 2023."said James Yang，Partner at Bain & Company based in Hong Kong.

The underlying trend in 2023 is a flight to value. A significant proportion of respondents （35%） said that they were waiting for better promotions to make their money go further, while 18% were eyeing bulk deals. However, an even bigger proportion （48%） of consumers said they were opting for cheaper brands or switching to private label products.

The flight to value is having a polarized effect across product categories. Shoppers are spending on necessities such as tissue, handwash, instant noodles and pet food, while also trading down and buying less in discretionary or big-ticket categories such as home appliances and furniture. Yet at the same time, they are also still seeking small indulgences in areas such as dining out and travel.

Unsurprisingly when comparing spending habits across cities and age cohorts, consumers from the lower income brackets and those from lower tier cities were most prone to feeling the squeeze, particularly the boomers, Gen Z, and Gen X cohorts. The value-conscious mentality was also prominent in Gen Z shoppers in the bigger cities and higher income brackets, who have not built up the spending power of their older peers.

Similar trends were observed in Southeast Asia as revealed in a Bain survey of 9,000 consumers in the region in mid-2023. Around 72% of the respondents (mainly lower income and younger households) said they would cut or maintain spending in 2023. Consumers are also taking the same actions such as buying on promotions, switching to cheaper brands, bulk purchases etc., to reduce spending. However, more shoppers rely on promotion （23%） than switching to cheaper brands （17%） in Southeast Asia. Similar category spending polarization is also observed despite some regional differences. Vacation spending is one of the most affected categories in Southeast Asia while Chinese consumers are still seeking indulgences through travel.

The report also found that Chinese shoppers are also willing to devote their attention to more novel platforms that blur the boundaries between entertainment and retail, particularly in livestreaming/short video e-commerce platforms.

The rise of livestreaming—which typically consists of an influencer promoting one or more products in an entertaining broadcast that also facilitates purchases by viewers—was already visible on Singles Day last year. In fact, the gross merchandise value (GMV) from Singles Day livestreaming/short video more than doubled in 2022 from 2021 and retailers are poised to offer more ways to access the interactive shopping technology this time round.

Livestreaming/short video e-commerce is also on the rise in other markets and Southeast Asia has been regarded as the region with the highest potential outside China. As one of the key players in livestreaming/short video e-commerce, TikTok Shop has experienced exponential growth. Back in August this year, Momentum Works projected that TikTok Shop's share in the Southeast Asian e-commerce market would surge from 4.4% in 2022 to 13.2% in 2023. However, the recent ban on TikTok Shop in Indonesia and regulatory scrutiny in Vietnam could undermine the future of livestreaming/short video e-commerce in Southeast Asia.

Interestingly in China, the rapid growth in livestreaming/short video penetration is not yet matched by average spending per livestreaming/short video customer, which significantly lags traditional e-commerce platforms. The shortfall tallies with concern around customer service. For instance, shoppers who signaled that they would cut spending on key livestreaming/short video platforms on this year's Singles Day cited slow delivery, poor app design, and unsatisfying return policies.

"A winning formula in China will combine everyday value with inspiration, amusement, or diversion. It is important to bear in mind that there are multiple routes to these twin destinations. For instance, standing out for value-conscious shoppers might involve expanding a private label offering or providing unbeatable value.There is little doubt that the bar has been raised for both value- and content-led retailing in China and it is imperative that retailers respond rapidly."said Melanie Sanders,Partner and Head of Asia Pacific Retail practice, based in Melbourne.

点击下方报告名称或右上角PDF按钮下载

中文版：《2023年“双十一”：理性和感性双管齐下，赢得消费者青睐》

English version：《China’s Singles Day 2023: Win the Head and the Heart with Value and Entertainment》