2023年全球奢侈品市场销售额有望创下新高，达到1.5万亿欧元；成功的奢侈品牌将建立更强大的品牌韧性、引发更强烈的消费者共鸣、获取更长久的发展动力。

贝恩公司近期发布《2023年全球奢侈品行业研究报告（秋季版）》，研究显示，2023年全球奢侈品市场销售额（包含奢侈品及奢侈体验）有望创下新高，达到1.5万亿欧元，相较2022年，整体销售额增长约1600亿欧元，同比增长8-10%。其中，在社交互动和全球旅游复苏的推动下，2023年奢侈体验类消费反弹强劲，重回历史最高点。

研究表明，按恒定汇率计算，全球奢侈品市场延续了去年的增长趋势，实现11-13%的增长。此外，作为核心部分的个人奢侈品市场持续增长，预计销售额将达到3620亿欧元，同比增长4%（按当前汇率计算）。面向2024年，由于今年第四季度全球奢侈品市场受到一系列宏观因素的影响，研究预测，2024年全球个人奢侈品市场的表现疲软，同比增速将维持在中低个位数的水平。

贝恩公司资深全球合伙人布鲁诺表示：“2023年，有65-70%的奢侈品牌获得了正增长，然而，这一比例相较2022年的95%有所下滑。当前，奢侈品牌正处于决定性的关键时刻，想要保持自身竞争力，品牌必须想客户之所想，以满足消费者的需求为己任，并果断决策。未来，那些成功的奢侈品牌将建立更强大的品牌韧性、引发更强烈的消费者共鸣、获取更长久的发展动力，从而脱颖而出，在以价值为核心的新市场环境下赢得新增长。”

贝恩公司全球合伙人邢微微说到：“全球奢侈品行业的基础稳固，长期来看，增长的势头不会改变。我们观察到，随着各个奢侈品市场之间呈现出明显的融合态势，为品牌进一步扩展提供了新机会。在这种情况下，奢侈品牌应当抓住并放大市场潜力，同时，还应当进一步强化自身的品牌内涵，并且通过战略性并购，来重新定义行业界限，从而为未来的发展奠定基础。”

全球各区域奢侈品市场表现

• 中国：中国内地市场第一季度的表现强劲，但是，在宏观经济承压的背景下，增速逐渐放缓。展望未来，到2025年，随着海南全岛建成封关运作的海关监管特殊区域（即海南全岛成为“境内关外”区域，海南岛内可以享受零关税等优惠政策），海南有望成为新兴的奢侈品消费中心。

• 亚洲其它地区：日本本土客户保持强大的消费力，同时，由于大量的外国游客入境消费，推动日本市场蓬勃发展。与之形成对比的是韩国，宏观经济的不利因素影响了本土消费，此外，韩元汇率波动使得购物成本上升，共同对韩国市场带来了一定挑战。东南亚奢侈品市场（尤其是泰国）得益于区域内旅游业的强劲发展和本土消费者日益增长的兴趣，展现出积极的发展势头。沙特市场正在加速发展，吸引了主流奢侈品牌的投资。澳大利亚市场也具备良好的增长条件。

• 美洲：相比2022年，美洲市场的整体销售额同比下降8%。一方面，许多“仰慕型”消费者普遍存在不确定性，压制了购买奢侈品的意愿，另一方面，虽然头部客户保持了坚定的消费信心，但是由于美元对欧元的持续强势以及境内外市场的价格差，这一类消费者更愿意去境外消费。

• 欧洲：欧洲旅游业逐步回暖，带动各国奢侈品消费增长，其中，长途度假胜地和主要奢侈品购物城市受到高消费人士的青睐。即使宏观经济不稳定影响了本地“仰慕型”消费者的购买意愿，但是，欧洲市场的头部客户依然保持稳定并展现出积极的发展势头，推动市场增长。

细分品类和渠道表现

品类方面。由于价格上涨，部分奢侈品品类的销量有所下滑，但是，推动了所有品类的销售额实现增长。珠宝品类，尤其是高级珠宝成为不确定环境下的投资热点。受此推动，2023年，珠宝品类的销售额有望达到300亿欧元。成衣品类，尤其是超高价成衣受到头部消费者的青睐，表明了消费者对于卓越、耐用产品的需求不断扩大。美洲和欧洲市场的“口红效应”凸显，推动美妆品类，尤其是彩妆和香水两大子品类取得正增长。腕表品类持续向好，但是两极化的趋势加剧，只有少数品牌成为赢家。皮具品类在近几年取得卓越表现，但目前增长速度有所放缓。

渠道方面。随着消费者对于实体购物体验的追求增长，以及客户服务在销售中的重要性不断提高，单一品牌专卖店成为经销体系的主导。此外，实体和数字体验逐步融合，要求品牌在客户旅程的每一个环节提供卓越的体验。相比之下，以百货店和奢侈品专营店为代表的多品牌销售业态增长急剧放缓——从业者不得不思考如何调整自己的价值主张，从而能够更有效地满足消费者需求。

消费群体代际差异明显

根据研究，不同代际的消费群体之间差异加大：X世代和Y世代正值收入巅峰，他们是奢侈品消费的主力军，也是未来几年收入增长的主要来源。相比之下，Z世代的当前消费力不及前辈，但是他们站在社会和文化变革的前沿，能够影响其他几代消费者的价值体系，同时非常渴望切身体验，积极探索生活的意义。这表明了Z世代具备极大的消费潜力，预计到2030年，Z世代占全球奢侈品市场消费的比例将达到25-30%，千禧一代则占到50-55%。为了致胜日益复杂的市场格局，品牌必须努力满足不同消费群体的需求。

面向未来：2030年全球奢侈品市场展望

展望2030年，全球奢侈品市场可能会有所起伏，但其稳固的基本面将继续推动增长。研究预计，中国消费者将为个人奢侈品市场贡献35-40%的销售额，欧洲和美洲消费者合计贡献40%。此外，到2030年，线上和单一品牌专卖渠道将占整个市场的2/3。对此，奢侈品牌必须注重在整个客户旅程中的每个互动触点提供差异化、有意义的体验。贝恩认为，并购是奢侈品牌应对主要挑战的法宝之一，行业将会迎来新一轮并购高峰。在这个过程中，奢侈品牌还要致力于成为可持续发展领域的领导者，并且运用技术建立差异化优势。

邢微微建议，奢侈品牌取得长期成功的关键是始终做到目标明确，有的放矢。在竞争日益激烈的市场中，品牌必须注重创意和创新，加深与消费者之间的共鸣，最终目标是培养品牌爱好者，扩大品牌影响力。

在为长期发展做好准备以外，奢侈品牌还要积极应对短期挑战。贝恩建议，在业务运营时，奢侈品牌应当遵循迅速响应、灵活调整的指导原则，建立弹性的业务架构，优化治理机制和业务流程，从而实现高效化。

The global luxury market is projected to reach €1.5 trillion in 2023, an 8-10% growth over 2022, setting a new record for the industry and proving its unparalleled resilience. These are among the findings of the latest Bain & Company report with Altagamma, the Italian luxury goods manufacturers’ industry association. Spending on experiences, particularly, recovered to historic highs, fueled by a resurgence in social interactions and travel.

Despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, the market registered robust growth of 11-13%, at constant exchange rates. This is consistent with last year’s growth rate and translates to a ~€160 billion increment in spending across luxury categories.

Amid pronounced geopolitical and macroeconomic shifts, the luxury market has proven unparalleled resilience this year. The key segment, personal luxury goods, has experienced continued growth in 2023 and is projected to reach €362 billion by end of year,4%higher than 2022 at current exchange rates.

However, headwinds remain heading into the fourth quarter, including fragile consumer confidence, macroeconomic tensions in China, and sparse signs of recovery in the US. The research suggests a softening personal luxury goods performance in 2024, achieving low-to-mid single digit growth over 2023, based on current scenarios.

Bruno Lannes,Senior Partner at Bain & Company based in Shanghai said:"This is a defining moment for brands, and the winners will separate themselves through resilience, relevance, and renewal—the basics of the new value-centered luxury equation.The luxury market is generating positive growth for 65-70% of brands in 2023, compared to 95% in 2022. To stay in the game, it will be crucial for brands to take bold decisions on behalf of their customers."

“The market is set for long-term growth, rooted on strong fundamentals,” said Weiwei Xing,the partner at Bain & Company based in Hong Kong. “Capturing and amplifying the market potential will be key, as the clear convergence among luxury markets allows for further expansion. Players have the opportunity, but also the responsibility, to reinforce their meaning, while leveraging strategic M&A to redefine the boundaries of the industry. These will be foundational drivers for growth in the future.”

Regional perspectives: European tourism rebounds, American spending decelerates, and Chinese consumers fuel the Asian luxury ecosystem

The study shows global luxury tourist purchases have nearly reached pre-pandemic levels, with untapped potential remaining in many areas. Europe has enjoyed a progressive pickup in tourism, driving growth across countries, with long-haul resort locations attracting high spenders alongside key luxury cities. Even if local aspirational customers were impacted by macroeconomic instability, stable top-customer pools maintained positive momentum contributing to market growth.

Alternatively, the Americas have seen a deceleration throughout the year, posting an 8% drop from 2022, as widespread uncertainty continues to impact aspirational customers’ spending. Top customers remain confident but have maintained their spending abroad, as the US dollar remains strong against the Euro and price differentials favor oversea purchases.

Saudi Arabia is accelerating, attracting investments of major luxury brands; and Australia has provided fertile ground for growth.

The Chinese mainland posted a strong performance in the first quarter but slowed progressively as new macroeconomic topics arose. Hainan is poised to grow as a bright luxury hub, set to become an entire duty-free island by 2025. Japan is booming, thanks to sound local customers and the weak Yen, favoring touristic inflows. Conversely, South Korea is facing a challenging year, with unfavorable macroeconomic headwinds impacting local consumption and strong currency leading tourists to buy elsewhere. Southeast Asian countries experienced positive momentum, thanks to strong intraregional tourism and growing interest from local consumers, especially in Thailand.

Category perspectives: jewelry shines, consumer quest for experiences bolsters monobrand stores

The Bain and Altagamma analysis shows all luxury categories achieving growth, favored by continued price elevation, partially undermining volumes. Fueled by an investment mindset, jewelry is set to reach €30 billion in market value in 2023, with fine jewelry affirming itself as a bright spot for investments amid uncertainty. Ready-to-wear is showing positive growth, favored by top spenders on the ultra-high offer, with unfolding demand for excellence and durability. Beauty, driven by make-up and fragrances, is enjoying positive momentum, favored by the emerging lipstick effect in the Americas and Europe. Watches continue to thrive, despite a rising polarization around few industry winners. And after overperformance in recent years, growth in leather goods is slowing.

In terms of channels, monobrand is leading the distribution ecosystem, favored by consumers’ quest for physical experiences and the increasing role of clienteling in sales. Physical and digital experiences are increasingly blending, requiring brands to deliver excellence in the experience across the whole consumer journey. Conversely, multi-brand environments suffer sharp slowdown in both department and specialty stores, with rising questions on how to evolve their value proposition to best serve consumers’ needs.

Multi-generational complexity unfolds

Brands must navigate through rising multigenerational complexity, playing ambidextrously to serve different needs across the consumer base. Generation X and Y are in their peek income years, representing the bulk of luxury purchases and the key pool of income growth in the near future. However, Generation Z is positioned at the forefront of social and cultural change, inspiring other generations’ value systems, with a strong desire for lived experiences and quest for meaning. By 2030, Gen Z will account for 25-30% of luxury market purchases, while millennials will account for 50-55%.

Luxury market in 2030: what’s next?

Looking ahead to 2030, solid fundamentals are poised to continue to drive market growth, despite possible bumps along the route. Chinese customers will account for 35-40% of the personal luxury goods market, while Europeans and Americans together will represent 40%. And online and monobrand channels are expected to account for two-thirds of the entire market by 2030. In this context, brands will have to focus on providing differentiation and meaningful experiences across the whole customer journey, regardless of the touchpoint of interaction. This will also lead to a new season of M&A, driven by the necessity to address key challenges of the industry. Leading on sustainability and embracing tech will be key.

Maintaining a purposeful approach will continue to be pivotal to long-term success. In an increasingly crowded market, brands must focus on creativity and innovation to enhance relevance to consumers, with the ultimate goal of cultivating a base of brand lovers to broaden their reach.

Mastering short-term challenges is simultaneously critical. Brands must instill responsiveness and adaptability as guiding principles in their operations. This involves introducing flexibility in the business structure and optimizing governance and processes for efficiency.