贝恩公司近日发布的《2023年中国奢侈品市场报告》显示，2022年受疫情影响下滑的中国内地奢侈品市场在2023年迎来复苏，预计将实现12%的同比增长。2024年，中国内地奢侈品市场有望取得中等个位数增长。

从全球来看，2023年中国内地消费者占全球奢侈品消费总量预计达到22–24%左右，中国内地市场也占到全球奢侈品消费总量的16%左右。贝恩预计，到2030年中国将成为全球领先的奢侈品市场之一，中国内地消费者占全球总量的比例将增至35–40%，内地市场的占比将提升至24–26%。

报告显示，2023年上半年中国内地奢侈品市场取得强势反弹，主要由于2022年第二季度市场表现不佳导致基数较低。2023年下半年的增长势头却大幅减弱，一方面由于消费者信心有所下滑，另一方面由于2022年第三季度的销售额基数较高。

贝恩公司资深全球合伙人布鲁诺（Bruno Lannes）表示：“中国内地奢侈品市场在2023年实现了两位数的强劲复苏，但尚未完全恢复至2021年水准，现有经济环境和海外消费回暖的影响减缓了复苏势头。疫情过后，中国内地奢侈品市场开始回到正常的增长路径，长远来看，中国奢侈品消费的基本面依然强劲，但是短期内仍然存在着一些不确定因素，例如消费者信心恢复速度，海外奢侈品消费增长速度等。”

贝恩公司全球合伙人邢微微表示：“2024年出境游的恢复程度主要取决于经济复苏情况以及旅行和住宿成本的变化。我们预计，中国内地消费者的海外奢侈品消费将延续去年的反弹之势，尤其在亚洲市场。对于奢侈品牌来说，全球统一的定价策略仍是吸引中国内地消费者回流内地市场的关键。”

从品类细分来看，所有奢侈品类均迎来反弹。美妆品类表现稳健，同比增长8%左右，其中香水和彩妆两大子品类涨势尤为强劲；时装和生活方式、皮具和珠宝品类同比增长10%–20%，复苏态势良好，其中皮具表现稍弱于其他两大品类，主要因为消费多集中于价格较低的箱包；腕表品类复苏势头最弱（同比增长5–10%），各品牌表现参差不齐。

2023年，国内旅游业开始全面复苏，大批游客回归带动奢侈品销售回暖，同时，海南省颁布了刺激奢侈品消费的措施。在双重因素的作用下，海南免税销售额实现了25%左右的同比增长，但仍未恢复至2021年水准。人均消费下跌超过25%，潜在原因包括折扣力度减弱、代购活动减少以及消费者理性程度提高。

在今年的研究中，我们探索了中国内地奢侈品市场的两大发展趋势。

趋势一：海外奢侈品消费

2021至2022年，中国内地消费者的奢侈品消费超过90%来自中国内地市场。随着出境游逐步回暖，贝恩预计2023年中国内地市场占内地消费者奢侈品消费的比例将回落至70%左右。根据预测，2023年中国内地游客在欧洲和亚洲的奢侈品消费分别恢复到2019年疫情前40%和65%的水平。

中国内地和海外市场之间的商品价差是促成海外消费回暖的重要因素。一项对中国内地、欧洲和亚洲市场主要SKU的抽查显示，奢侈时装和皮具在中国内地的价格明显高于出境游首选目的地的价格，这样的价差与2022年相比几乎没有变化，因此吸引了内地消费者前往海外购买奢侈品。

趋势二：代购市场

长久以来，韩国免税市场是奢侈品代购，尤其是奢侈品美妆代购的重要来源。2023年，预计韩国对外国游客的免税销售额缩水30%，降至600–650亿元人民币。主要由于免税零售商被限制向与代购有关联的旅行社支付佣金，同时奢侈品牌对一些在中国市场最为畅销的美妆产品供货加以限制。

在美妆代购限制增多的同时，专业性更高的新型代购模式开始崭露头角，尤其在时装和皮具领域。代购机构采用平台化方法为消费者带来丰富、保真的购物选择，通过批发渠道以更低的价格提供海外市场商品。

报告指出，代购市场不太可能骤然遇冷，其发展速度取决于奢侈品牌对其海外批发渠道的控制力度。

Following an overall rebound last year, China’s luxury market is expected to grow at mid-single-digit in 2024, according to Bain & Company’s latest China Luxury Report.

China's luxury market saw a 12% year-on-year increase in 2023, recovering from the previous year’s decline due to the pandemic. 2023 started off with a robust rebound in H1 due to the low base in the second quarter of 2022. However, H2 witnessed weaker growth, primarily driven by a decline in consumer sentiment among middle- and high-income individuals and a high comparable base in the third quarter.

“The solid double-digit rebound is commendable, but China’s luxury market has not fully recovered to its 2021 levels. The recovery was tempered by the challenging economic climate and increased overseas shopping. As the market transitions to a post-Covid growth phase, uncertainties remain regarding the speed at which consumer confidence will resume and how overseas luxury shopping will evolve,” said Bruno Lannes, a Shanghai-based senior partner at Bain & Company.

“The extent of this recovery in 2024 will primarily depend on the speed of economic recovery and changes in travel and lodging costs. Another year of recovery for Chinese overseas luxury consumption, particularly in Asian destinations, is expected. It remains crucial for brands to implement harmonized global pricing strategies to maintain consumption in the mainland market,” said Weiwei Xing, a Hong Kong-based partner at Bain & Company.

2023’s rebound was supported by all categories in China’s luxury market. Fashion and Lifestyle and Jewelry led the strong recovery with growth rates ranging from 15% to 20%. Leather Goods grew at 10%-15% as consumers focused more on the lower-price bag segment. The Beauty category saw solid growth of approximately 8%, driven by excellent momentum in fragrances and makeup, while Watches saw a softer rebound, with growth rates ranging from 5% to 10%, driven by contrasted performance across brands.

Duty-free sales in Hainan expanded by about 25% in 2023 year-on-year, though not back to its 2021 high. This rebound can be attributed to the recovery in domestic travel and stimulus measures implemented by the Hainan government. Interestingly, the average spending per shopper decreased by more than 25%, likely due to lower discount levels, fewer Daigou activities, and an increased rationality among consumers.

Bain highlighted two trends that has shaped China’s luxury market in 2023 and will continue to do so in the future.

Trend 1: Return of luxury shopping overseas

Over 90% of luxury shopping happened domestically during the pandemic years as borders closed. As Chinese overseas tourism has resumed, Bain expects domestic luxury spending to decrease to 70% in 2023. Notably, the recovery of Chinese tourists' luxury spending in Europe and Asia has been significant. 2023 Chinese luxury spending in Europe and Asia made up around 40% and 65% of their 2019 spending levels in those markets, respectively.

The pricing gaps between luxury goods in mainland China and other markets have played a critical role in the resurgence of overseas shopping. A sample check of leading products in mainland China, Europe, and Asian markets has revealed significant price gaps across categories such as fashion and leather products, making luxury shopping abroad more attractive. Importantly, these price gaps have remained unchanged compared to 2022.

Trend 2: Evolution of Daigou

South Korea's duty-free market has historically been a significant source for Daigou, particularly in the luxury beauty sector. However, Korean duty-free sales to international travelers is estimated to experience a 30% decline to approximately 60–65 billion RMB. This is due to restriction in Daigou commission fees to travel agencies, and brands limiting supply of popular beauty products in the Chinese market.

Despite higher restrictions on Daigou activities in the Beauty sector, new and more professional Daigou models are emerging, particularly in the Fashion and Leather Goods sector. By embracing a more platformized approach, Daigou operators provide consumers with an aggregated and authenticated avenue for shopping and by accessing overseas goods from wholesalers at lower prices.

The Daigou market is unlikely to cool off, and its future trends will depend on brands' global control over their wholesale market overseas.

In 2023, Chinese luxury consumption is estimated to account for approximately 22%-24% of the world's total, with consumption in mainland China comprising about 16% (both excluding Daigou). By 2030, Chinese luxury consumption is expected to reach 35%-40% of the world's total, with consumption in mainland China reaching 24%-26%, solidifying its position as one of the leading luxury markets globally.

点击下方报告名称或右上角PDF按钮下载

中文版：《2023年中国奢侈品市场报告》

English version：《2023 China Luxury Report》