贝恩公司与凯度消费者指数昨日联合发布了《2024年中国购物者报告，系列二》，这也是双方追踪中国快速消费品市场以来的第28份报告。

报告显示，中国快速消费品市场在2024年前三季度增势趋缓。从整体来看，2024年前三季度中国快速消费品市场取得0.8%的温和增长，其中销量增长4.6%，平均售价下降3.6%。分季度看，一二季度销售额分别增长2.0%和1.6%，三季度下降1.1%，9月单月下降幅度达到3.5%。

贝恩公司资深全球合伙人、大中华区消费品业务主席邓旻表示：“中国消费者的消费行为依然在不断变化，对品牌商来说，有一个关键因素始终不变，就是提高和保持渗透率。我们多年的研究发现，那些在市场上常年保持领先的品牌，渗透率明显高于竞争对手。要赢得消费者的喜爱并非难事，但要培养消费者的忠诚度却很难，很多消费者并不介意更换品牌。因此，品牌的顾客群就像一个有漏洞的水桶，顾客流失是常态，漏水情况往往一年比一年严重，这对品牌商来说是一个巨大的挑战。”

凯度消费者指数中国区总经理李嵘表示：“今年前三季度中国快速消费品市场出现增速放缓，主要归结于平均售价的下降。这一趋势在2019年已显露端倪，今年则是创下了2019年以来的最高降幅。而2024年前三季度CPI较同期上涨0.3%。这一现象的背后是市场竞争日趋激烈，消费者对性价比的日益关注。另一方面，2024年前三季度中国快速消费品市场的整体表现落后于同期的社会消费品零售总额增长，主要是因为国家出台了耐用品相关的促销政策，同时居民消费支出更多地转向餐饮和旅游等家外消费领域。”

家庭护理：三季度均实现正增长的唯一类目

在四大快速消费品领域中，家庭护理类目以3.5%的销售额增速领跑市场，饮料类目以3.3%的增速紧随其后，包装食品类目小幅增长1.4%。个人护理类目则下降了4.4%，与2023年前三季度跌幅相比有所扩大，接近于2022年跌幅水平。

值得注意的是，家庭护理类目是唯一在2024年前三季度销售额均保持正增长的类目，也是销量增长最强劲、平均售价降幅最低的类目。销量增长主要源于产品渗透率和购买频率的提升，反映出消费者对健康和卫生的日益关注，以及对自我享乐和居家品质生活的追求。

个人护理类目的平均售价降幅从2023年前三季度的3.3%扩大至9.6%，且价格下降趋势贯穿今年前三季度。原因有很多，包括消费者追求性价比的意识提升、免税渠道带来的竞争压力、电商渠道的促销大战以及本土新生势力品牌推出高性价比的“平替”产品等。

电商渠道渗透率触顶，线下渠道表现优于整体市场

伴随连锁折扣店和仓储会员店业态的扩张，线下渠道销售额在今年前三季度增长1.8%，平均售价降幅缩小至3%（电商渠道同期平均售价降幅达到6%）。

线下渠道的格局持续演变，从占比看，小型业态的份额不断扩大，超市/小超市和杂货店渠道市场份额增长，折扣店增速超过非折扣店，大卖场继续以中等个位数的速度下滑。在三四线城市强劲需求的推动下，仓储会员店实现17%的显著增长，这一数字虽然与2023年同期增长58%的成绩相比大幅放缓，但也体现出国内中等收入人群的不断增多，以及他们对高性价比和差异化产品的追求。

电商渠道方面，市场份额小幅下滑0.6%，首次出现负增长。尽管所有平台都在大力促销，推动销量增长6%，但平均售价出现了同等降幅，最终导致销售额小幅下滑。与2023年同期相比，2024年前三季度电商渠道的渗透率整体保持稳定。其中，在护肤、美妆和婴儿配方奶粉等高电商渗透率的品类中，我们观察到0-2%的小幅增长。

从电商格局来看，兴趣电商平台抖音增速高达35%，与2023年65%的增速相比有所放缓。按商品交易总额（GMV）计算，抖音已超越京东成为第二大电商平台。拼多多等折扣平台的增速较2023年有所放缓，而快手同比增速则下降了12%。

过去十年中国消费者偏好变化

如今的中国快速消费品市场，品牌商和零售平台通过不断加码促销活动来拉动销售。我们的研究表明，“多品牌偏好”和“品牌忠诚”这两大品类的消费者行为存在较大差异。我们在2013、2016、2019年的《中国购物者报告》中曾对此进行了详细阐述，2024年在之前研究分析的基础上进一步更新。

就购买频率和品牌数量之间的关系而言，“多品牌偏好”品类的消费者购买频率越高，购买的品牌数量也越多；“品牌忠诚”品类的消费者购买频率提高，并不会导致购买品牌的数量增多。

在今年的研究中，我们发现往年的一些趋势得到了延续，但也有一些变化，具体包括：

• 大多数“多品牌偏好”品类消费者在这方面的行为表现更趋明显，可能由于市场竞争加剧以及市场上品牌数量增多所导致；
• 尽管电商越来越普及，但在所有品类中电商渗透率对于消费者行为的影响几乎可以忽略不计；
• 市场竞争依然激烈，在我们追踪的27个品类中，2019年各品类排名前10品牌在2023年有18%跌出前10位；
• 对于领先品牌而言，驱动增长的各因素中，渗透率比购买频率和复购率更为重要；
• 从平均购买频率看，整体上消费者对品牌的忠诚度在过去十年间稳步下降；
• 低频消费者贡献了很大一部分销售额，且这一比例在不断提高。

未来展望

贝恩公司资深全球合伙人布鲁诺（Bruno Lannes）表示：“自今年9月底以来，中国各地都在积极推出更多促消费措施，并发布了提振服务消费高质量发展的指导意见。这些措施的效果显现仍需一段时日，但无疑能够大力提振消费者信心，从而进一步带动消费增长。”

展望2025年，报告认为，品牌商需要关注以下五项重点策略：

1. 调整优化产品组合；

2. 释放全渠道潜力，加深线上线下布局，确保“买得到”；

3. 抓住家外消费机遇；

4. 开展针对性营销活动，提升顾客心智占比；

5. 继续控制成本来应对长期降价趋势，同时探索合作机遇，打造轻资产运营模式。

点击下方报告名称或右上角PDF按钮下载

中文版：《2024年中国购物者报告, 系列二》

English version：《China Shopper Report 2024, vol. 2》

China’s fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) growth has been decelerating over the first three quarters of 2024, according to the 13ᵗʰ China Shopper Report 2024 Vol. 2 released today by Bain & Company and Kantar Worldpanel.

For 2024 Q3 year-to-date (YTD), the average FMCG value growth of 0.8% was a result of a 4.6% increase in volume, coupled with a decline of 3.6% in average selling prices (ASP). Looking at the respective quarters, China’s FMCG grew at 2.0% in Q1, 1.6% in Q2, -1.1% in Q3, with a 3.5% decline in September alone.

“As Chinese shopper behavior evolves, one critical fact holds true: market leadership is determined by a brand’s ability to boost and maintain household penetration. Across all categories studied, the brands that earned market leadership have significantly higher penetration than competitors,” said Derek Deng, Senior Partner and Head of Consumer Products practice in Greater China. “The big challenge is that the shopper base is a leaky bucket – and the holes are getting bigger each year. Chinese shoppers still love brands, but many will continue to switch brands.”

“The growth deceleration in China’s FMCG is due to the ASP deflationary trend which we had identified since 2021. We are seeing the highest ASP decline since 2021, while the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.3% during the same period (i.e., 2024 Q3 YTD). The intensifying market competition and the escalating demand for value for money are the primary drivers behind this trend.”,” said Rachel Lee, General Manager of Kantar Worldpanel in China.

“FMCG’s performance lagged total retail sales, partly due to the country's pro-consumption policies aimed at durable goods. There has also been a continuous reallocation of consumer expenditure towards service sectors such as dining and travel, with retail sales in these areas experiencing a 6.7% increase during the first three quarters of 2024.”

Home care - the only segment that recorded positive growth across all three quarters

Within the four major FMCG sectors, home care led growth with an increase of 3.5% in 2024 Q3 YTD compared to the same period last year, closely followed by beverages at 3.3%. Packaged food experienced a moderate growth of 1.4%, while personal care saw a widened decline compared to 2023 Q3 YTD, reaching a similar level to that of 2022, with a decrease of 4.4%.

Interestingly, home care was the only segment that maintained full three quarters of growth as it experienced the lowest ASP deflation and strongest volume growth compared to other sectors. Overall volume growth was supported by both increased penetration and frequency, benefiting from heightened health and hygiene needs as well as a growing demand for improved quality of life at home.

The personal care sector faced accelerated ASP deflation at -9.6%, compared to -3.3% during the same period in 2023 Q3 YTD. This deflation persisted throughout the year and was driven by consumers' cost-consciousness, competitive pressure from duty-free channels and online platforms’ aggressive promotions, and domestic insurgent brands offering value-for-money alternatives.

Offline channels outperformed market; online penetration showed muted growth

Driven in part by the expansion of discount chains and club warehouse formats, offline channels achieved a growth rate of 1.8% YTD and experienced less price deflation at -3%, compared with -6%ASP of online channels. The channel landscape is characterized by smaller formats such as super/mini and grocery stores gaining share, with discounters outpacing non-discounters. Hypermarkets continued to decline at a mid-single-digit rate, while club warehouses saw notable growth of 17% supported by strong demand in Tier 3 and 4 cities, though this was a slowdown from 58% in the same period of 2023. This growth benefits from China’s expanding middle class, which seeks premium quality and innovative products at good value.

Compared with 2023 Q3 YTD, overall online penetration remained stable with traditionally high online penetration categories (such as skincare, beauty, infant formula) growing at 0-2% online penetration. In 2024 Q3 YTD, e-commerce slightly declined by 0.6% and lost market share for the first time since its inception. Its robust volume growth of 6%,was offset by a similar-sized ASP decline resulting from heavy promotions across nearly all platforms. E-commerce platform Douyin continued to grow at a double-digit rate of 35%, although this growth was slower than the 65% seen in 2023. Douyin has now overtaken JD as the second-largest e-commerce channel by GMV. Discount platforms like Pinduoduo saw lower growth compared to 2023, while Kuaishou declined by 12%.

Chinese consumers preferences have shifted over past decade

At a time of increased promotional activations by brands and platforms, research found that categories behave differently along the "repertoire-loyalist" continuum, and updated analysis builds on previous studies conducted in 2013, 2016, and 2019. In repertoire categories, increased shopping frequency often leads to consumers buying a wider variety of brands, while in loyalist categories, higher purchase frequency does not increase the number of brands purchased.

This year’s findings reveal both consistent trends and notable shifts:

· Shoppers in most repertoire categories have become more repertoire-oriented, likely due to intensified competition and the increasing availability of brands.

· Online penetration has minimal impact on shopper behavior, regardless of category type or level of online adoption.

· Markets remain highly competitive, with an average of 18% of the top 10 brands being replaced since 2019 across the 27 categories studied.

· Brand penetration continues to be the key driver of performance for leading brands, surpassing purchase frequency and repurchase rates.

· Average shopper engagement with brands, measured by purchase frequency, has steadily declined over the past decade.

· Revenue contributions from low-frequency shoppers have grown in importance across most categories.

“The Chinese government has launched more stimulus measures and issued guidance to support household consumption since late September. Although it will take patience and time for the stimulus to fully take effect, it is likely to progressively build consumer confidence which will later translate into higher consumption” said Bruno Lannes, senior partner, Bain & Company.

To succeed in 2025, China’s FMCG players need to consider five key strategies (1) re-examine and keep innovating portfolio, (2) Maximize physical availability, both online and offline - capitalize on the full potential of omnichannel approaches, (3) embrace the out-of-home opportunities, (4) Implement focused marketing campaigns aimed at recruiting consumers, and (5) Continue to manage costs, given the persistent deflationary environment, including the investigation of partnership opportunities and asset-lite operating models.