▪️ 旅游业回暖和奢侈体验的需求增长推动市场稳步增长，但品牌需要重新思考其价值主张，不断与时俱进，以在激烈的市场竞争中脱颖而出

▪️ 宏观经济压力、消费需求疲软以及二元客户战略令个人奢侈品牌面临危机

▪️ 消费两极化和收入利润分散化趋势加剧，应促使奢侈品牌重新思考行业创新和商业模式。

贝恩公司与意大利奢侈品行业协会Altagamma近日联合发布最新版《2024年全球奢侈品市场研究年中更新》。报告显示，尽管面临地缘局势和全球经济动荡的挑战，2023年全球奢侈品市场依然展现出非凡的稳定性，销售额突破1.5万亿欧元，创下历史新高。此轮增长的主要动力来自于奢华旅游市场的回暖，以及2023年第四季度美国假日季的强劲消费表现。就2024年第一季度的市场表现来看，大多数地区在宏观经济下行压力的影响下增速放缓，但日本市场在旅游业热度的推动下表现依旧亮眼。

贝恩和 Altagamma 的研究报告指出，相对于实体奢侈品，消费者更青睐奢侈体验的趋势得到延续。尤其值得注意的是，旅游行业回暖复苏、沉浸式体验备受热捧，带动了酒店、美食和高级餐厅等体验式消费的稳步增长。此外，小型私家奢华邮轮旅游超越了传统邮轮旅游，成为消费新热点；私人飞机和游艇消费也延续了此前的涨势。反观艺术品拍卖行业，艺术品供给短缺和经济不确定性导致市场增速放缓。

2024年第一季度，全球个人奢侈品销售额轻微下滑。奢侈品牌能否在上调价格的同时，依然让消费者感到“物有所值”，将成为各细分市场维持稳定增长的关键因素。

贝恩公司资深全球合伙人布鲁诺（Bruno Lannes）表示，随着市场展现出复苏势头和较强韧性，奢侈品牌必须重新思考其价值主张的构建方式，把赢得消费者的信任和建立情感联结置于首位。许多品牌目前正面临危机，但这是暂时性的，是由宏观经济压力和客群两极分化所导致的。这正好为品牌重塑未来发展方向、增进个性化客户联结提供了独特的契机。品牌宗旨和品牌热爱将成为引领品牌穿越周期，从白热化竞争中脱颖而出、蓬勃发展的“北极星“。

全球各地表现不一，日本市场一枝独秀

按当前汇率计算，2024年第一季度全球奢侈品市场销售额预计下滑1%至3%，各区域市场之间和各市场内部均存在巨大差异。

2024年第一季度，受旅游热潮推动，欧洲和日本市场表现出强劲韧性。尤其是日本，不但吸引大批中国游客前往，还成为其他国家游客的热门旅行目的地。贝恩研究表明，这很大程度上归因于此前因疫情限制措施而积压的消费需求得到释放。在日本，日元对美元汇率跌至二十多年来的最低水平。日元的大幅贬值，刺激赴日外国游客人数激增。他们除了参观日本各地的成熟景点之外，新兴奢侈品门店也成为他们行程中的必经之地。

中国市场则面临不小的压力，原因有二：其一是出境游逐步回暖，其二是经济不确定性导致国内需求疲软。同样的，尽管美国的国内生产总值（GDP）和消费者信心持续提升，但仍面临宏观经济层面的压力。

Z世代压力与日俱增，品牌采取二元客户战略

持续上升的失业率和黯淡的未来前景令年轻一代的奢侈品消费放缓。而X世代和婴儿潮一代则进一步累积财富，增加奢侈品支出，并日渐受到各大奢侈品牌的重视，成为品牌头部客户的潜力人群。因此，许多品牌积极采取二元战略：一方面瞄准头部客户，强调“一对多”的大型活动，另一方面积极投资，将触角伸向体育等新兴领域，以扩大其影响力。

与体育跨界合作是奢侈品牌惯用的品牌推广方式之一，不过现在，为了扩大品牌影响力，它们开始把目光投向板式网球、赛车和足球等更新潮的运动。当然，奢侈品牌也会在2024年巴黎奥运会上大展拳脚。借助这些品牌推广机会，奢侈品牌不仅可以触达更多新兴人群，还能创新与现有客户的互动方式。

珠宝和小件奢侈品品类领跑市场

珠宝是当前奢侈品市场中表现最好的品类，其消费者的购买决策往往带有投资性目的。该品类不但增速高于腕表，而且在超豪华奢侈品和入门级奢侈品两大细分市场均实现迅猛增长。与此同时，“仰慕型”消费者的支出领域也开始向彩妆、香水和眼镜等小件奢侈品转移。服装品类通过升级战略，抢占头部客户心智，成功跑赢配饰品类，而鞋履品类则因“仰慕型”消费者的支出减少而受到冲击。

贝恩公司全球合伙人邢微微表示，二元战略一方面着力提升对头部客户的吸引力，另一方面通过小件奢侈品迎合消费者的“小确幸”心理，促成了奢侈品消费的两极分化。未来，市场动荡仍将延续，奢侈品牌若想逆势突围、制胜市场，就必须重新思考如何在不同价位和触点优化并传递价值主张，在扩大品牌影响力的同时，培养客户拥护度和忠诚度。尤其在面对未来的各种不确定因素的时候，奢侈品牌必须投资部署支持业务增长的能力要素，夯实核心业务基础，保持决策流程敏捷，优化库存管理系统，从而确保高效、迅速地响应市场需求。

The global luxury market showcased remarkable stability in the face of geopolitical and economic turbulence in 2023, exceeding a record €1.5 trillion. Behind this growth was a resurgence of luxury travel and a robust US holiday season in the fourth quarter. While the first quarter of 2024 saw a slowdown across a majority of regions amid macroeconomic pressures, Japan has continued to flourish due to a tourism boom. These are among the findings in the latest Bain & Company Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study, released today in collaboration with Altagamma, the Italian luxury goods manufacturers’ industry association.

Bain and Altagamma’s research highlights a continuing trend favouring experiential offerings over tangible goods. Particularly notable is the steady growth in hospitality as well as gourmet food and fine dining, fuelled by the recovering tourism industry and growing demand for immersive experiences. It also points to rising interest in smaller, intimate luxury cruises, which surpass traditional cruise concepts. Additionally, the market has seen consistent growth in private jets and yachts. This comes alongside a slowdown in the auction market for fine arts, due to artwork shortages and economic uncertainties.

The personal luxury goods market saw a slight decline in the first quarter of 2024. Key to maintaining stable growth across subsectors will be luxury brands’ ability to address rising prices while maintaining a robust price-value equation in the eyes of consumers.

“As a narrative of resurgence and resilience emerges, luxury brands must rethink the way they build their value proposition to prioritize trust and connection with consumers,” said Bruno Lannes ,a Senior Partner at Bain & Company based in Shanghai. “Many are navigating a momentary crisis, driven by macroeconomic pressures and a polarized customer base. This presents a unique moment to define a new way forward for their brands, fostering a more personal connection with their customers. Purpose and love will be the north star for brands that thrive in this increasingly competitive market landscape.”

Japan thrives while nuances arise across other regions

The first quarter of the year is estimated to decrease between one and three percent, at current exchange rates, with significant variability in brands’ performance across and within regions.

Buoyed by tourism inflows in the first quarter of 2024, Europe and Japan have demonstrated notable resilience, with Japan thriving as it attracts a growing number of nationalities beyond the historical predominance of nearby Chinese travellers. Bain’s research shows this resurgence can be largely attributed to the backlog of travel from the previous year, postponed due to Covid-19 restrictions. In Japan, touristic inflows have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, bolstered by a favourable Yen arbitrage—reaching its lowest level against the US dollar in two decades. This has resulted in a surge of tourists from around the globe, flocking to both established destinations and emerging luxury locations across the nation.

China's market is under pressure due to two primary factors: the revival of outbound tourism and weakening local demand caused by rising economic uncertainties. The latter is undermining middle-class consumer confidence, leading to "luxury shame" behaviour similar to what occurred in the Americas during the 2008-09 financial crisis. Likewise, the US continues to face with macroeconomic pressures despite signs of gradual improvement in GDP and consumer confidence.

Generation Z grapples with rising pressures as brands play a dichotomous customer strategy

Facing rising unemployment levels and weakening future outlooks, younger generations are delaying spending in luxury goods. Meanwhile, Gen X and Baby Boomers continue to enjoy accrued wealth, growing their spend as they capture luxury brands’ attention. This complements an ongoing growth of the top consumer tier. Many brands are taking a dichotomous approach, focusing on top clients, with an emphasis on large-scale one-to-many events, while investing to expand their reach by engaging in conversations in new territories, including sport. While sport has long been seen as a branding opportunity for luxury goods, brands are widening their reach by focusing on newer sports, including padel, racing, and football. And of course, luxury brands will be featured prominently at the 2024 Olympics in Paris. These branding opportunities not only give brands a platform for reaching new audiences, but also to engage existing customers in new ways.

Jewellery and small luxuries leading the pack

Jewellery stands out as a top performer in the current landscape, with consumers making investment-led purchase decisions, surpassing watches in growth and showcasing strength in both uber- and entry-luxury segments. Meanwhile, aspirational consumers are also redirecting spending toward makeup, fragrances, and eyewear, viewed as small indulgences. Simultaneously, apparel has outgrown accessories on an elevation strategy aimed at capturing the attention of top-tier customers, with shoes suffering from a slowdown among aspirational shoppers.

“A dual strategy, framed around the allure of top-tier clientele and the appeal of smaller luxury indulgences, is driving growth at both ends of the price spectrum,” said Weiwei Xing, a Partner at Bain & Company based in Hong Kong. “But now is not the time to for brands to rest on their laurels. As brands continue to face turbulence in the market, the winners will be those that rethink the way they craft and deliver their value propositions across multiple price points and touchpoints, growing their reach while building advocacy and loyalty among their customers.”

As they continue to navigate uncertain times, brands will need to invest in growth enablers, defend core business elements, maintain agility in decision-making, and optimize stock management to ensure efficiency and responsiveness to market demand.