贝恩公司今天携手凯度消费者指数联合发布《2024年中国购物者报告，系列一》。报告指出，中国快速消费品市场在2023年全年和2024年一季度迎来温和复苏。

报告显示，中国快速消费品市场在2023年全年实现了2.4%的销售额同比增长，落后于中国GDP增长率（5.2%）和社会消费品零售总额增长率（7.2%，不包括餐饮），疫情后家外消费复苏是影响增速的一部分原因。销量全年增长2.4%，仍然是推动快速消费品市场增长的主要动力；平均售价全年保持相对稳定。

2024年一季度，中国快速消费品销量增长3.5%，推动销售额增长2.0%左右，比2023年同期增速高出0.5个百分点。销量的增长表明消费者依然具有较强的消费需求。然而平均售价同比下降1.5%，打破了2023年的平稳态势。

“中国经济持续展现积极的复苏现象，GDP和社会商品零售额实现稳定增长，社会人员流动量也达到历史新高。在这种情况下，快速消费品市场重新向好只是时间问题。”贝恩公司资深全球合伙人布鲁诺（Bruno Lannes）表示，“我们看到了一些有趣的趋势，例如二线城市正在引领快速消费品行业增长。此外，虽然整体平均售价持续承压，但我们观察到部分品类依然在延续高端化趋势。”

从城市层级看，二线城市成为快速消费品市场增长的主要推动力。过去四年，二线城市虹吸了大量周边人口，移居到二线城市的人口数量超过了800万。这使得二线城市成为大多数快速消费品品牌的“兵家必争之地”。

包装食品和饮料类目在2024年一季度引领增长，家庭护理类增速放缓，个人护理类继续下滑

2024年一季度，包装食品和饮料类目销售额分别实现2.7%和4.3%的同比增长。随着社会流动性增加以及社交活动的恢复，大多数包装食品品类实现销量增长；饮料则实现销量和平均售价双增长，其中果汁、即饮茶、瓶装水等“近水”饮料品类增长尤为迅猛。

在家庭护理领域，随着领先企业着力推动消费场景多样化、社交活动增多以及疫情后消费者对卫生健康给予更多的重视，大多数家庭护理品类迎来需求增长。然而，受品牌降价及大包装产品促销影响，2024年一季度我们追踪的品类价格下降，未能延续2023年的高端化趋势。

个人护理类目虽然迎来了销量反弹，但是消费者依然精打细算，导致平均售价大幅下滑7.5%。在大多数个人护理品类中，本土品牌带来了更多高性价比产品，加剧了市场竞争。

线下渠道重拾增势，电商渠道平稳增长

线下客流量回暖，推动线下渠道在2024年一季度增长2.4%，略高于快速消费品行业整体增速和电商渠道增速。在线下渠道中，杂货店渠道和超市/小超市渠道份额持续增长，2024年一季度增速分别为11%和7%。大卖场渠道则持续萎缩，降幅达到6%。不过，大卖场业态中的仓储会员店一季度实现了22%的高速增长，占大卖场渠道的份额提升至9%。专卖店渠道由盛转衰，销售额下滑4%（2023年增长4%）。

电商渠道维持在2.0%左右的低个位数增长。值得注意的是，抖音销售额大幅增长46%，2024年一季度市场份额达到了18%（相比2023年同期提高了6个百分点），首次超越京东成为了快速消费品第二大电商平台。拼多多凭借其低价平台定位成功吸引了大量客流，在一季度取得了6%的销售额增长和15%的市场份额（2023年同期市场份额为14%）。京东转向高性价比产品策略，实现了5%的销售额增长，扭转了去年下滑1%的颓势。淘宝/天猫持续面临挑战，销售额下跌7%，市场份额下降至32%（相比2023年同期降低了3个百分点），但仍是国内规模最大的电商平台。

新生势力品牌：凭借独到优势，穿越市场周期

中国快速消费品市场在过去几年间涌入了大量新生势力品牌，这些品牌凭借资本加持和流量红利迅速发展。不过，近年来随着流量见顶、成本上涨，大部分新生势力品牌的“烧钱”模式难以为继。

报告在2018年和2021年分别选取了46个和69个代表性品牌并持续追踪他们的表现, 并根据这些新生势力品牌的发展轨迹，总结出了四大关键成功因素：品牌力、产品力、渠道力、组织力。今年，贝恩和凯度消费者指数回顾了这些品牌在2021-23年的表现，并将它们分为三类：领跑者（占比40%）、失速者（占比20%）和滞后者（占比40%）。研究显示，很大一部分品牌依然取得了突出的表现，有些甚至成为了各自品类的领军品牌。今年，通过同样分析，报告再次选出了61个‘2024级新生势力品牌’。

“随着市场竞争加剧和新技术涌现，对这四个能力维度的要求也在不断变化。在渠道力方面，新生势力品牌愈发需要把握新兴渠道机会、培养‘全域加速’能力，而不是拘泥于单一渠道。”凯度消费者指数大中华区总经理虞坚认为。例如，永璞积极拓展线下分销网络，从“网红品牌”向全渠道布局的“长红品牌”转型；恋火通过推出适配短视频交互的产品组合、内容创作和极致高效的运营，在抖音上实现高速增长。

“随着竞争加剧，品牌商和零售商应当以消费者真需求为导向，密切关注需求变化，在新细分、新地域、新场景、新渠道和新触点上牢牢把握增长机遇。同时，还需要优化成本，以此应对持续降价的压力。此外，品牌商和零售商应当拉通渠道战略，把握家外消费复苏先机，从战略层面出发，重新投资社交和餐饮相关渠道，并打造独特的价值主张。”贝恩公司资深全球合伙人、大中华区消费品业务主席邓旻表示。

China’s fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector observed a moderate recovery in 2023 and in the first quarter of 2024, according to the 27th China Shopper Report [2024 Vol. 1] released today by Bain & Company and Kantar Worldpanel.

China’s FMCG market grew 2.4% in 2023, lagging GDP growth (5.2%) and total retail market growth (7.2%, excluding catering), due in part to recovering out-of-home consumption post pandemic. Volume continued to be the main driver of growth, with an increase of 2.4%, while average selling prices (ASP) remained relatively stable throughout the year.

In the first quarter of this year, China’s FMCG sector saw value growth of approximately 2.0%, a half percentage point higher than in Q1 2023, supported by a 3.5% increase in volume. While the volume increase illustrates a continued strong desire for consumption, the market experienced a deflation of 1.5% in ASP, down from the stable pricing trend observed in 2023.

“We continue to see positive signs of recovery such as healthy GDP figures and retail sales growth. Social mobility has also reached an all-time high, and so it is only a matter of time before these positive numbers trickle down to FMCG growth,” said Bruno Lannes, a partner at Bain & Company based in Shanghai. “Some interesting trends we see this time is that Tier 2 cities are leading FMCG growth. Additionally, though average selling prices face deflationary challenges, we still observed premiumization in some categories.”

Geographically, FMCG growth in 2023 was led by Tier 2 cities. These cities have received a population influx of 8 million or more in the past four years and have become must-win markets for most FMCG brands.

Packaged food and beverage led growth in first quarter of 2024; growth in home care decelerated while personal care continued to decline

In the first quarter of 2024, packaged food and beverage witnessed stable value growth of 2.7% and 4.3%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. Most categories within packaged food experienced volume growth due to recovering social mobility and activities. Beverage growth was driven by both volume and ASP particularly in the near-water drinks such as juice, ready-to-drink tea, and packaged water.

Most home care categories saw strong volume demand driven by leading players’ efforts to promote diverse use occasions, increased social activities, and established focus on hygiene and health post-COVID. However, in contrast with the price premiumization of 2023, tracked categories displayed a price deflation in Q1 2024, driven by brands’ price cuts and promotion of larger, bulk-sized products.

Similarly, personal care witnessed robust volume growth, but ASP declined 7.5% as consumers remained cost-conscious, and most personal care categories faced competition from domestic brands offering more value-for-money products.

Offline channels regained momentum while E-commerce saw moderate growth

Offline channels overall grew by 2.4%, slightly higher than the overall FMCG and e-commerce channels, due to recovering offline traffic. Within offline channels, grocery and super/mini formats continued to gain share, growing at 11% and 7% respectively in Q1 2024 compared to the same quarter last year. Hypermarket segment continued to shrink at 6%. However, within the hypermarket, club warehouses saw notable growth of 22%, representing 9% share of total hypermarket channel. Specialist stores declined by 4% vs. a 4% growth in 2023, and the growth for convenience stores fell flat.

E-commerce growth maintained a low single-digit growth of around 2.0%. Notably, Douyin surpassed JD to become the second-largest e-commerce platform in China, delivering substantial growth of 46% and achieving an 18% market share in Q1 2024, six percentage points higher than Q1 2023. Pinduoduo saw increased traffic driven by its value-for-money proposition, resulting in a 6% growth and a 15% market share, one percentage point higher in Q1 2024 compared to the same period last year. JD experienced a 5% growth as a result of its low-price strategy, reversing from a 1% decline last year. Still leading the pack, Taobao/Tmall continued to decline, with their market share landing at 32%, three percentage points lower than in Q1 2023.

Insurgents: Competitive strengths that navigated through cycles

The Chinese FMCG market has witnessed an influx of insurgent brands, supported by venture capital, and leveraging online traffic. However, in recent years, as traffic has peaked and costs have risen, many insurgent brands are starting to see red.

Bain selected representative insurgent brands with “disruptor potential” every three years since 2018 and continued to track their performance over time. The development trajectories of these insurgent brands revealed four success factors in the areas of brand power, product ecosystem, channel prioritization, and organizational capability.

“We selected 46 and 69 brands to form the Class of 2018 and Class of 2021, respectively. This year, we reviewed their performance during 2021-2023, and categorized them into three groups: “Stand-out” (40%), “Hold-out” (20%), and “Fade-out” (40%) brands. We are pleased to see that a significant portion of the insurgents are performing well, with some even rising to become leaders in their categories. This year, we conducted the same analysis to select 61 insurgent brands to form the Class of 2024,” said Jason Yu, Managing Director of Kantar Worldpanel in Greater China.

However, the requirements in each of the four areas evolve over time, as the markets become more competitive and new technologies emerge. For example, in channel prioritization, there’s an increasing need for insurgent brands to capture emerging channels and develop “connected commerce” capabilities to follow consumers across their multiple touchpoints. For example, Yongpu (永璞) transitioned from being an “online influencer brand’” to establishing an omnichannel presence by expanding its offline distribution networks. Passional Lover (恋火) achieved accelerated growth on Douyin with a tailored product portfolio, content creation, and operational excellence.

“With fierce competition, both brands and retailers should follow the true needs of consumers and monitor evolving demands and seize growth opportunities in new segments, geographies, occasions, channels, and touchpoints. They also need to manage costs in the persistent deflationary environment. In addition, brands need to build an integrated route to market and  rejuvenate out-of-home opportunities, strategically reinvest in social settings and food service-related channels with unique value propositions,” said Derek Deng, a partner at Bain & Company based in Shanghai.

点击下方报告名称或右上角PDF按钮下载

中文版：《2024年中国购物者报告，系列一》

English version：《China Shopper Report 2024, Vol. 1》